Consumer-directed health plan enrollment is poised for a growth spurt, according to forecasts by Forrester Research. CDHP growth is on track to exceed 6 percent of the commercially insured market by 2007. Back in 2003, Forrester projected that CDHPs would attract 2.7 million members and capture $16 billion in premiums in 2005 — and it was correct.

Enrollment for the commercial insurance market is expected to remain static at about 180 million, says Katy Henrickson, a senior analyst at Forrester. "Therefore, because CDHPs are growing, it is taking a greater share [of the market] from other products."

These findings are similar to those of Mercer Human Resources Consulting. Mercer says CDHP penetration is likely to rise to 20 percent in 2006 and 31 percent in 2007 at jumbo employers — those with 20,000 or more employees.

Growing enrollment seen in CDHP, 2000–2010

Relative market share

Note: Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding

Source: Forrester Research Inc.

Likely to offer CDHP in 2006 or 2007

* Selected 5 on a five-point scale, where 1 = not at all likely and 5 = very likely. Includes employers that currently offer CDH. Figures for 2007 include employers likely to offer in 2006.

Source: National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, Mercer Human Resources Consulting

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